The White Paper is finally published French Defense ... two months after the originally scheduled release date. If we will not contest the fact that
"the army, it ensures the security of the nation, not the land" Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Throbbing Behind Left Shoulder Blade
is finally released ...
The White Paper is finally published French Defense ... two months after the originally scheduled release date. If we will not contest the fact that "the army, it ensures the security of the nation, not the land"
or reaffirmed the supremacy of intelligence, which will be discussed tomorrow, it goes without saying we wonder about the thinking that prevailed in its design. The six cases in which the Commission intends to use the means of National Defence: The White Paper is finally published French Defense ... two months after the originally scheduled release date. If we will not contest the fact that
"the army, it ensures the security of the nation, not the land" 1/Attaques major computer. These are considered presqu'inéluctables like in years to come, including from state actors.
2/Conflits may involve the Atlantic Alliance:
"An invasion triggering mechanism Alliance solidarity seems unlikely in the next 15 years. In contrast, in the context of an assertion of power or interests , or riparian countries to reach members of the Alliance may be tempted to test the limits of solidarity by adopting methods of indirect confrontation: regional destabilization point attack, threat of use of missiles, terrorist campaign ... What whomever committed, the risk of limited action leading to a calculation error involving the Strategic Alliance can not be overlooked. "
3 / Pandemics massive high case fatality " In the next 15 years, the emergence of a pandemic is likely. "
4 / natural or technological disaster of great magnitude: "The recurrence of major events and increasing severity was confirmed in recent years. The combination of a major technological accident with a natural disaster becomes more likely. "
5/Crises possible in a DOM. The main premises would be the Kourou space center. Furthermore, The committee identified a risk associated with migratory flows in Mayotte, French Guiana and Guadeloupe. 6 / Commitment to France in a major regional conflict:
"In such a scenario, the decision of France's commitment would result from a direct attack on strategic interests and would be designed from the outset in a multinational framework. This scenario is crucial to define the volume and capacity of action of armed (...). This scenario would not necessarily lead to a massive, unique, but could develop into a very diverse set of operations (the evacuation of the peace operation through the full range of special operations or targeted strikes) contributing to major action or covering. It may require security of maritime traffic in sensitive areas (Straits in particular) "
. Finally, the White Paper recommends that the clauses or agreements relating to the possibilities of intervention by France in view of policing within some countries, like Côte d'Ivoire, Gabon and Togo, are repealed.
Since the collapse of the Soviet bloc between 1989 and 1991, which attracted the attention of the drafters of the 1994 White Paper, relations international paradigm are clear shortcomings as revealed in the scenarios of 2007. It is clear that France lacks foresight, but this myopia affects all former supporters of Occidentalism. Historically, the period in which we live is not an aberration. The Westphalian system was swept away by the fury of 1914, bringing out the conditions (rise of totalitarianism) of the Second World War and the inconsistency of the international system that followed, known as the "Cold War".
Today, we sail on the feeling that it is replacing what has just disappeared so suddenly and with so little anticipation. Nor the Thousand Year Reich, the Communist empire has survived the twentieth century. But the current period has no other name that "post-Cold War, when U.S. does not adopt the name of" second cold war. As if the cycle of the two world wars had created a new one, based on the indirect action ... means for the West.
In this context, how to interpret September 11, 2001? Terrorism would have become the paradigm missing? To believe the president Sarkozy this morning, it would seem so. However, it is necessary to maintain, as we learn from our experience elsewhere in the Cold War, a capacity analysis objectively in order not to over-interpret the phenomena ...
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